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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 23 2020 6:34 am


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

862 
ACUS01 KWNS 230511
SWODY1
SPC AC 230509

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WISCONSIN...AND OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday evening from
northern Minnesota into Wisconsin with hail and gusty winds. A
tornado cannot be ruled out over parts of Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi with the remnants of Beta. A few strong storms may
affect coastal Washington Wednesday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the Great Basin will flatten as a powerful upper
trough impacts the Pacific Northwest. Substantial height falls and
increasing winds aloft will impact the state of Washington late in
the day and overnight, with a few strong storms expected near the
coast.

To the east, a weaker progressive feature will move across the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, providing increasing
shear and lift. A plume of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will aid
destabilization, favoring isolated strong to severe storms.

To the south, the remnants of Beta will eject northeast across
Louisiana and Mississippi as a positive-tilt upper trough moves
toward the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. A more substantial
advection of moisture and pressure falls is anticipated compared to
the previous day, supporting the addition of low tornado
probabilities.

...Louisiana into southwest Mississippi...
The surface low is forecast to track from the upper Texas Coast this
morning into central Louisiana by evening, with pressure falls
extending east across Mississippi. Veering surface winds and
increasing low-level flow overall will exist as a warm front lifts
north, oriented roughly from central Louisiana into southwest
Mississippi at 00Z. An increasing height gradient aloft will enhance
midlevel winds, with 30 kt expected at 500 mb. Meanwhile, 850 mb
winds will increase to around 30 kt, with higher values during the
evening.

A small area of tornado potential may develop after about midday
over Louisiana as the 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE develops coincident with
200 m2/s2 effective SRH. This will support isolated severe storms,
possibly a couple supercells with a tornado risk. Beyond 00Z, the
better lift from warm advection may transition the storms to
elevated to the north.

...Northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin...
Good heating will occur during the day, prior to the shortwave
trough arriving. Though lift will be maximized after 00Z, steep
lapse rates aloft and increasing deep-layer shear will favor mainly
elevated storms forming over northern Minnesota, and moving rapidly
southeast into Wisconsin. Mid to high-level winds of 30 to 50 kt
respectively will lengthen hodographs, favoring both hail and
perhaps small forward-propagating storms with gusty winds. The time
of day may mitigate the overall wind risk.

...Coastal Washington...
Intense height falls will occur late in the day with the strongest
cooling aloft and destabilization after 00Z across western
Washington. A prominent leading band of precipitation associated
with warm advection in the lower levels will give way to storm cells
moving rapidly east off the ocean. While only a few hundred J/kg
MLCAPE will exist, strong large-scale lift as well as long
hodographs may favor a few long-lived cells, possibly with rotation
which will enhanced wind gust threat. Small hail is also possible
given cold temperatures aloft.

..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/23/2020

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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