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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 6 2020 8:52 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 060557
SWODY1
SPC AC 060556

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern
Plains into the upper Great Lakes region later today. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes may
be noted from southeast Montana into northwest South Dakota. Strong
winds may also accompany storms across the Middle Atlantic region.

...Northern Plains to Upper Great Lakes...

An expansive area of convection has developed across the northern
Plains ahead of a short-wave trough that should progress into the
eastern Dakotas by sunrise. This feature will shift into the upper
MS Valley during the afternoon before shifting into the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Modest deep-layer flow is expected along a corridor
from the northern Plains into WI ahead of a surface front that
should settle south into this region during the day. Current
thinking is ongoing thunderstorm complex over SD will spread into MN
ahead of the short wave. This activity should propagate into the
upper MS Valley region and possibly reintensify as boundary-layer
warming aids buoyancy. While forecast soundings do not exhibit
strong shear, adequate flow will exist for organized thunderstorm
clusters capable of producing wind/hail. Behind the short wave, it's
not entirely clear how productive the surface front will be draped
across southwest MN into southeast SD. Forecast soundings suggest
convective temperatures will be breached and there is some reason to
believe isolated discrete storms will evolve after 22z.

Of more concern will be regions north of the frontal zone across the
northern High Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain
moisture across southern MT where strong boundary-layer heating is
forecast. Latest model guidance suggests a weak mid-level
disturbance will approach south-central MT by 07/00z. If this
feature is real there is increasing confidence that scattered
thunderstorms will evolve within a wind profile favorable for
supercells. NAM forecast sounding for 4BQ at 07/01z exhibits
surface-6km shear of 60kt with effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2.
With surface dew points forecast near 60F, cloud bases should be
adequately low for a threat of tornadoes. Additionally, latest CAMs
are fairly aggressive across southeast MT into northwest SD. An
upscale-evolving complex is possible by late evening as LLJ
strengthens into southwest SD after sunset. 

...Middle Atlantic...

Strong short-wave trough is forecast to shift off the New England
Coast early in the period. As a result, northwesterly flow will be
maintained across the Middle Atlantic, albeit relatively weak with
roughly 20kt expected at 500mb through late afternoon. As the short
wave passes, surface front should orient itself southeast-northwest
across NY as surface high settles over southern ME. This frontal
orientation should prove favorable for strong heating across much of
the Middle Atlantic and surface temperatures should warm rapidly by
early afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by early afternoon suggest
surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures in the
upper 80s/90F. With SBCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg, robust updrafts
are expected due to relatively steep lapse rates. Locally damaging
winds are expected with storms that form within this northwesterly
flow regime.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/06/2020

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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