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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jun 26 2019 6:23 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 261625
SWODY1
SPC AC 261624

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM
EASTERN OREGON ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS TO PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds and hail are most probable today into
tonight from eastern Oregon across the northern Rockies/Plains to
parts of Illinois and southeastern Missouri.

...WA/OR/ID...
A band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from OR/CA
northeastward into ID/WY/MT.  One core of strong winds will nose
into southern OR this afternoon, with enhanced lift spreading into
northeast OR/southeast WA.  Strong heating, cool temperatures aloft,
and sufficient CAPE will aid in the development of scattered
thunderstorms in this region.  Forecast soundings in this area show
pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and inverted-v profiles.  Also,
strong vertical shear will be present.  This will result in an
environment favorable for a combination of multicell clusters and a
few high-based supercells capable of damaging winds and hail.  The
storms will likely spread into central/northern ID this evening.

...MT into northeast WY...
Strong heating is also occurring over much of MT today, where
surface dewpoints range from the 40s in the western mountains into
the 50s over the southeast.  Thunderstorms should develop by
mid-afternoon along an east-west axis near the WY/MT border and lift
northeastward through the evening.  Hail and damaging winds will be
possible throughout this corridor, but appear more likely over
southeast MT into northeast WY where better low-level moisture will
increase coverage/longevity of storms.

...NE/SD/MN...
One or more clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western SD/NE this evening and propagate eastward across the Plains
tonight.  Initial storms would likely be supercellular, with growth
upscale into a bowing structure farther east.  There is uncertainty
how far east this activity may persist, but a few model solutions
suggest they could make it into MN late tonight before weakening.

...MO/IL...
A well-defined MCV is present this morning over southwest MO.  All
12z guidance is consistent in developing scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon ahead of the feature.  Vertical shear profiles are
weak, suggesting that activity will be relatively poorly organized
and chaotic.  However, ample low level moisture, large CAPE values,
and mesoscale organization of the MCV provide sufficient support to
maintain the ongoing SLGT risk forecast.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/26/2019

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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