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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 15 2018 1:46 am


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 150038
SWODY1
SPC AC 150036

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN COLORADO...EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible for a few more
hours across central Oklahoma, northern Colorado, eastern Wyoming
and south-central Arizona.

...Central Oklahoma...
Latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms in and around the Oklahoma City metro. This cluster of
storms is located near a maximum of instability with the RAP
analyzing a pocket of moderate instability in central Oklahoma with
MLCAPE values in the 2500 to 3000  J/kg range. In addition, Oklahoma
City WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6km shear of 35 kt with gradually veering
winds with height in the lowest 3 km above ground level. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat for a couple
more hours this evening. Although isolated supercells will be
possible, the more viable threat will be from multicells that
organize into short line segments. The cells could produce
marginally severe wind gusts and hail but the threat is expected to
diminish during the mid evening as instability drops across the
region. The severe threat area appears too small and the temporal
nature will be too brief to add a slight risk area at this time.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
The latest radar imagery shows a couple of strong thunderstorms
across eastern Wyoming early this evening. These storms are located
along a corridor of instability extending from western Nebraska into
eastern and northern Wyoming where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE
values in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D
VWPS show 0-6 km shear around 40 kt. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient for storm rotation and
isolated large hail within the stronger isolated cores. A wind
damage threat will also be possible over the next hour but the
threat should become more isolated as instability weakens with time.
Further south, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is located along
the Front range. This area is located in a weaker regime of
instability but there still could be enough deep-layer shear for a
marginal severe threat for another hour or two.

...South-central Arizona...
The latest radar imagery shows a broken line of strong thunderstorms
located from just north of the Phoenix metro extending southeastward
to near the New Mexico state line. These storms are on the northern
edge of a pocket of moderate instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE
values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. As the storms move
south-southwestward into the stronger instability, a marginal wind
damage threat will be possible with the multicells that temporarily
increase in intensity.

..Broyles.. 08/15/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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