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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Feb 25 2018 7:23 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 250532
SWODY1
SPC AC 250531

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are expected mainly from Texas eastward along
the central Gulf Coast on Sunday. A few storms may be capable of
localized wind damage or a brief/weak tornado, mainly across
southern Louisiana into the far western Florida Panhandle overnight.

...Synopsis...
An intense, negatively tilted shortwave trough will move from the
Midwest across the Great Lakes during the day, with strong
southwesterly flow aloft remaining over much of the eastern half of
the CONUS. A secondary, lower-amplitude wave will move from the Four
Corners to the Plains during the day, and across the OH Valley
overnight. At the surface, low pressure will continue northward from
Lake Superior across Ontario. An occluding front will extend south
into NY and PA, with a cold front roughly from the Appalachians to
the central Gulf and southeast TX during the afternoon. 

Upper 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the Gulf of Mexico portion
of the front, which will continue a southward drift for much of the
day.  As the secondary wave moves into the plains, southerly
low-level flow will increase, allowing for warm/moist advection and
a retreat of the front from southern LA into the western FL
Panhandle. 

Elsewhere, showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms are expected
across AL into GA during the day, but there will be little to
support severe or organized storms.

...Central Gulf Coast Region...
While a few showers and storms are expected along the
southward-moving cold front early in the day, these are not expected
to be severe. Additional elevated showers and storms are expected
over much of eastern TX into central LA, perhaps producing small
hail at best.  Overnight, southerly 850 mb flow should increase to
around 30 kt, resulting in lift and a slow northward shift of the
boundary. Up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to move into LA, with
up to 500 J/kg farther east along the coast. Most of the lift will
be north of the front, but the very moist air mass should allow for
surface based storms. Sufficient low-level shear supportive of
modest rotation will exist, and a brief/weak tornado or strong wind
gust cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell/Leitman.. 02/25/2018

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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