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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Aug 11 2020 2:56 am


 

Day 1

D4Thursday Aug 13 2020 - Friday Aug 14 2020 D7Sunday Aug 16 2020 - Monday Aug 17 2020
D5Friday Aug 14 2020 - Saturday Aug 15 2020 D8Monday Aug 17 2020 - Tuesday Aug 18 2020
D6Saturday Aug 15 2020 - Sunday Aug 16 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SWOD48 SPC AC 100853 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... On Thursday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian move an upper-level trough across the northwestern U.S. and maintain southwest mid-level flow in the northern Plains. The models are in general agreement that a corridor of moderate to strong instability will develop across eastern North Dakota Thursday afternoon. The models vary considerably on whether convection will initiate along the instability axis on Thursday. If storms can develop, then a severe threat would be possible, mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. But the potential is conditional upon the strength of capping. On Friday, model spread increases as some solutions move a cold front southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday evening while others develop a more persistent axis of moderate to strong instability further west in the northern Plains. Which scenario plays out will likely be determined by the timing of an upper-level trough in the northwestern U.S. Thunderstorm development could take place along the instability corridor, wherever it ends up. If the slower solution pans out, then a severe threat would again be possible in the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Model differences from Saturday to Monday are significant. The ECMWF moves an upper-level trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes from Saturday to Monday while the GFS shows a relatively long fetch of west-northwesterly flow in the north-central U.S. The models do have an axis of moderate to strong instability in the Upper Midwest although there is also variance among the solutions. Thunderstorms could develop each afternoon and evening along the northern edge of the stronger instability from the northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A severe threat would be possible with any convective cluster that can develop and persist across the northern edge of the warm sector. At this point, uncertainty is considerable concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of any severe threat late in the Day 4 to 8 period. ..Broyles.. 08/10/2020

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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