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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Aug 11 2020 3:49 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

863 
ACUS03 KWNS 100716
SWODY3
SPC AC 100715

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the northwestern
U.S. as southwest mid-level flow becomes established across much of
the northern Plains. A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward
across the central Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist and very
unstable airmass will be in place from central South Dakota into
central and eastern Nebraska. The upper-level ridge will impede
convective development across much of the central and northern
Plains through much of the day on Wednesday. However, isolated
thunderstorms could develop near or after peak heating in areas
where the cap weakens. Convective development would be most likely
during the early evening as a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet strengthens.
Although deep-layer shear across the central and northern Plains is
forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, low to mid-level lapse
rates will be very steep. This would be enough for a marginal wind
damage and hail threat with isolated thunderstorms that can overcome
the cap. At this point, there appears to be a broad area where
isolated convective initiation could take place. But most of the
area will remain capped. Have introduced a marginal risk area that
spans most of the instability corridor where convective initiation
will be conditional.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2020

$$

        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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